OVERNIGHT:  Not surprisingly, yesterday's primaries produced very little actual news, but the needs of the 24-hour news cycle require that TV journalists make every little ripple sound like World Wars 3 through 8.

The most interesting race of the evening – for the GOP nomination for US senator in Pennsylvania, is still too close to call.  More counting starts in the morning.  Dr. Mehmet Oz, endorsed by former President Trump, holds a razor-thin lead over hedge-fund manager Dave McCormick.  The winner will, in the general election, face Bernie Sanders thinkalike, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman.  This race is critical.  The ultimate winner will replace retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey.  It's a Republican seat, and judged by observers as the one the Dems have the greatest chance of flipping.  That would be a disaster for our side.  We can't afford any losses of Senate seats.  One vote may decide who controls the new Senate, which means Supreme Court confirmation votes.

Commentators are showing an intense interest in how many candidates endorsed by Donald Trump won.  With many races still out, we can't give specific numbers, and, frankly, I think the whole matter is exaggerated, and probably doesn't gauge Trump's ultimate influence in the GOP.  A primary election generally draws far smaller numbers of voters than a general election, and is often decided by local issues.  I'm not focusing on the Trump factor.

What I am focusing on is turnout, specifically the contrast between Democratic and Republican turnout.  That is often a pretty good indicator of turnout in November.  It's the "enthusiasm gap" factor.  Up to now, turnout in primary elections in 2022, overall, has favored Republicans, sometimes by heavy margins.   The figures for yesterday are not yet in.  I'll give them to you as they appear.

Another thing I'm looking for is the outcome of yesterday's school board elections in the states that held them.  There was a time when no one cared about school board elections.  They were barely covered in the media.  No one knew who was actually on the school boards.  The schools seemed to take care of themselves, magically.  Today, that's changed.  The parents' revolt that we're seeing all over the country, and that influenced last year's Virginia governorship election, often has its first combat in confronting out-of-touch school boards.  

There were many school board elections yesterday, but we have few meaningful results.  Oh yes, we have many names of winners and losers.  But, to show you how amateurish the news coverage is, we have little information about the point of view of the winners, and those they replaced.  That's the key, of course.  Are we going to see the shift to the right that we saw in Virginia?  That shift, if it repeats in school boards around the country, can have a dramatic influence on the future of American education.

We'll just have to wait.  I'll get you the key information pronto.

May 16-17, 2022